Business and the markets

Everyone wants to know when the bottom of the market will come, the magic number that will ensure we jump back into the share market and also invest in property at the exactly right time to make maximum profits. I recently attended a very interesting presentation given my Darren Shirlaw (he is the founder of the international business coaching firm Shirlaws and has a masters degree in the sharemarket and fund management).
Darren's opinion is that almost 90% of the bad news has been and gone (certainly in the share market). That yes, there may be a further drop but that nearly all analysts agree, the likely low point for the ASX will be 2750 points. So if we jump back in now, better now I say, and be ready for the upturn, than miss the bottom and hence that early opportunity for quick profit making. The same applies to the property market, there are bargains to be had now, snap them up and be ready for the return of the growth phase of the property cycle. A good way to understand these cycles is to research the mechanics of the Economic Clock and plot where you feel the economy of your industry of interest is at.

Darren made some other very interesting points. We are in a cycle, that cycle will take it's course. The key for property investors and business owners is being prepared for when the cycle turns and moves back into a growth phase. The difference between this recession though and those we have previously seen is the level at which the government is intervening. Will this artificially prop up the economy and hence extend the drag phase of the recovery? No one can answer this, certainly not based on analysis of past recessions, all we can do is watch the markets and build our platforms for growth NOW. Be prepared!
Darren also warned, a recession will come again and be better prepared next time, follow the markets and watch when the recession is coming and take action in your business appropriate to what you can predict is coming. Too many business people ignore the ASX but history shows that the economy mirrors the ups and downs of the companies that drive the ASX.
So I learnt so very useful girl guide tactics from Darren's presentation, and will adopt the motto of "be prepared" vs taking a head in the sand approach and hoping it all goes away.